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MARKET INTELLIGENCE / 01
Market Explorer
Live parent-market catalog · category structure · execution-aware research.
Catalog surfaceLoading…
Active questionNone selected
Execution linkIdle
Loading the active Polymarket catalog…
Manual fallback: event URL or raw JSON
Use this only if catalog loading is unavailable.
Fetching active market groups…
TRADER INTELLIGENCE / 02
Trader Research
Rank public traders · inspect trades · review open positions.
Profiles on canvas0 profiles
Query stateDiscovery mode
Data modePublic profile dossier
Top traders
Search a public username, or load a top-trader ranking.
Search for a username to inspect a trader, or choose a ranking metric and load the top 25 / 50 / 100.
BET SCOPE / 03
Bet Scope
Recent trades · largest trades · biggest and most profitable open positions.
Active lensRecent trades
Feed rows0 loaded
DataPublic Polymarket activity
Choose a lens or refresh the feed.
Loading public activity…
MARKET WORKBENCH / EXECUTION + MODEL
Market details
Select a market from the browser.
Load stateLoading market details…
Book freshnessWaiting…
StreamDisconnected
Loading market details…
Live stream disconnected.
Markets & price action
Loading options…
Price history
Load a market to chart its price history.
Aestus Football Model
Independent historical valuation · first match free, then premium research
First-match preview
FOOTBALL MODEL ACCESSUNLOCK THE MODEL FOR EVERY MATCHFree members receive the complete Aestus Football Model for their first viewed match. A paid subscription unlocks modeled probabilities, fair odds and historical form on every subsequent fixture.
1 · Structure
Nothing loaded.
Select a market to load its live order book and public transaction tape.
Market-prior calibration is disabled in v1. Use an independent probability source; no generic longshot correction is applied automatically.
Structure notes
3 · Kelly Calculator
Use your own bankroll, estimated win probability and entry price to calculate a transparent stake size. The result is local to this browser; the selected market price is only a starting reference and never replaces your own view.
Bet aggression
Full Kelly—
Applied fraction—
Recommended stake—
Implied shares—
Enter a bankroll plus probabilities and price.
Kelly is sensitive to probability error. Treat this as a sizing aid, cap it with your own risk policy and verify liquidity, fees and resolution rules before acting. Light members can save calculator presets once membership storage is connected.
2 · Holder research non-actionable
Research-only context. Computes the arithmetic average lifetime ROI of all returned holders on each side, with coverage and sample size visible. It never writes into “Your p”, never creates an actionable edge, and never enters the portfolio.
Signal settings
Load an event first.
⚠ Descriptive only — average ROI is not calibration. Coverage reports how many returned holders had usable performance data; use it to investigate a market, never to justify a trade by itself.
